US jobs numbers due Friday – Non-farm payrolls preview

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Employment data from the US has shown a resilient labour market, freeing traders up to focus on inflation data. The resilience is expected to continue in today’s data:

The data is due at 230 GMT, which is 0830 US Eastern time.

Snippet via Bank of America:

  • The May employment report is
    likely to show a healthy but better-balanced labor market.
  • Nonfarm
    payrolls likely rose by 200k, a 25k increase from April.
  • Strong
    hiring is likely to result in the unemployment rate edging down a
    tenth to 3.8%. and wage growth would likely remain at 3.9% yoy.
  • In
    short, the report should signal strong labor demand and little
    concern of an economic slowdown, in our view.

More broadly:

  • We think strong employment growth in laggard industries can persist this year, albeit to a lesser extent.
  • We expect payrolls to increase by around 170k per month in 2024.
  • Job growth should then slow to an average of 100k in 2025.
  • We also expect the participation rate to be rangebound at 62.6-62_7% across our forecast horizon. As a result. we only see a small and gradual increase in the unemployment rate, with a peak of 4.1% in 4Q 2025

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at

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