Locked and loaded for the US and Canada jobs report

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Both the US and the Canada jobs report will be released at the bottom of the hour. What is expected for May in the US?

  • Non-farm payroll estimate 185K (vs 175 theK)
  • Private payroll, 170K vs 167K last month.
  • Manufacturing payrolls, 5K vs 8K last month
  • Unemployment rate 3.9% est vs 3.9% last month
  • Average earnings MoM 0.3% versus 0.2% last month
  • Average earnings YoY 3.9% versus 3.9% last month
  • Average workweek (hrs) 34.3 versus 3.4% last month
  • labor force participation rate:No estimate versus 62.7% last month
  • U6 underemployment: No estimate versus 7.4% last month.

In Canada,

  • Employment change 22.5K expected vs 90.4 last month
  • Unemployment rate 6.2% vs 6.1% last month
  • Part time employment last month 50.3K
  • Full time employment last month 40.1
  • Participation Rate 65.4 last month
  • Average hourly earnings last month 4.8%.

Looking at some of the US employment data released so far:

  • ADP employment change 152K vs 173K estimate. Prior month was revised to 188K vs 192K. LOWER
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI 51.1 vs 48.6 last month. HIGHER and above 50.0 (expanding)
  • ISM Non- Manufacturing employment 47.2 vs 45.9 in April. HIGHER but below 50.0 (contracting)
  • JOLTs job openings: 8.06M vs 8.37M estimate. LOWER and lowest level since February 2024.
  • Challenger layoffs 63.816K vs 64.789K last month. Little changed, but lower than the 2024 high at 90.39K
  • 4 week MA of initial jobless claims 222.25K. Highest levels since September 2023. The highest since the fall post Pandemic reached 253K. The low was at 197K.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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