As the North American session begins, what are the key technical levels and why, are in play?
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved above the 100-hour MA on Thursday and extended to the 200-hour MA on Friday. The pair’s prive moved to and then just above the 200-hour MA (green line on the chart below), but could not sustain any meaningful momentum. The price rotated lower and fell back below the 100-hour MA (at 1.08014) to a low at 1.07813. The price rebounded and extended above the 100 hour MA in the European session today. The current price is between the 100-hour MA below at 1.08014.
USDJPY: USDJPY climbed to around 153.87 following Japan’s election, where the ruling coalition (LDP/Komeito) lost its majority. The yen’s drop reflects market concerns over potential delays in policy normalization due to political pressure, as a third party may join the coalition, possibly advocating for a slower rate hike approach to address cost-of-living concerns.
Technically on Friday, the USDJPY felll to test the 200 day MA and rising 100 hour MA (see chart below) and found support. The holding of those levels gave the buyers the go-ahead to push higher. It also increased those levels importance going forward. The 100 hour MA today is at 152.149 currently and moving higher. That is a key support today and going forward.
The gap and initial run higher today raced above the 61.8 of the move down from the July high at 159.397. THe price moved to a high at 153.87 which was a pip short of the swing high on July 31, before the buyers turned to sellers (see 4-hour chart above). The low has reached down to 152.45 in the current 4-hour bar. The close on Friday was near 152.28. The 100 hour MA is at 152.149 and moving higher Watch that area.
Move below and the 151.90 area will be eyed. Stay above and the buyers can make another run to the 61.8% and see what happens there.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved lower today and bottomed right near a swing area at 1.2938 (see red numbered circles on the chart below). The holding of that level gave the buyers the go-ahead to bounce higher (see chart below).
Drilling to the hourly chart, the bounce has moved back above the falling 100 hour MA and the 100 day MA at 1.29627 and 1.29701 respectively. That area is a close support and the price over the last few hours has found support within that area. On the topside, the falling 200-hour MA at 1.29878 will be eyed as resistance. On Friday, the price stalled near that level and rotated lower (see green line on the chart below). If the price can move above, that would increase the bullish bias in the short term at least (* NOTE the price has moved above the 200 hour MA over the last two weeks and failed. So getting above and staying above is key for the buyers to tilt and keep the bias in the direction of the buyers).
USDCHF: The USDCHF moved higher in sympathy with the USDJPY run higher in the Asian session and extended above the 100-day MA at 0.86874. The high reached 0.86992 – just short of the natural resistance at 0.8700 before moving back lower. On the downside, there was a floor developed at 0.86498. Watch that level and then the 38.2% of the move down from the July high at 0.86318. The 38.2% held support last week. Wide support/resistance: 38.2% at 0.86318 is support and 0.86874 at 100 day MA is resistance.
Below, the 200 hour MA held support on Friday . That MA is at 0.86577 and is another support target. Move below it and the floor at 0.8649 is the next target.
USDCAD: The USDCAD continued its extension higher today with a new high going back to August 5th (at 1.39057). The move took the price above a target at 1.3888. The price has moved modestly lower and trades above and below 1.3888. That should be a bias tilt. IF the sellers start to probe more seriously below 1.3888, the 1.3864 is the next target.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD moved lower and tested the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575. The low reached 0.65786 and bounced (see 4-hour chart below). The buyers leaning against that level increases the levels importance going forward. The price has moved higher and has moved up to 0.66097. Looking at the chart below, the swing area between 0.66189 to 0.6628 is the topside resistance that would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. Within that area is also the key 200-day MA which was broken with more momentum on Friday giving the sellers more control. If the price were to move back above the 200-day MA, it would give the buyer more confidence and put some “disappointment” in the sellers column (for control).
NZDUSD: The NZDUSD moved into a swing area on Friday between 0.59701 to 0.59836 and found support. Today, the price moved below, and the momentum took the price to 0.5957 before bouncing. The price has since moved back above the aforementioned swing area into the early US session which if sustained, could give buyers some hope.
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What would give the buyers even more hope is if the momentum continued and the price movee back above the 100-hour MA at 0.6009 (blue line on the chart below) and then the 200-hour MA at 0.60539 (green line on the chart below).
Last Monday, the price did move above the 200 hour MA (green line on the chart below), but could not sustain momentum. The price restarted the downside on the failed break.
Ulitmately for today (and this week), those two MAs will need to be broken to increase the bullish bias (see blue and green lines on the chart below). Absent that, and the sellers are still more in control. Be aware.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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