As the North American session begins, the dollar is mixed. The USDJPY is lower (lower USD) by about 0.60% and is the biggest mover on the day. The EURUSD is also lower (higher USD) after a try higher stalled ahead of 100-hour MA resistance target. The GBPUSD is also lower (higher USD). The DXY dollar index is near unchanged at -0.04% overall. A review of the technicals for some of the major currency pairs vs the USD is below.
The US yields are little changed to start the trading day. Yesterday, the US treasury auction of 20 year bonds was met with poor demand. Fed’s Collins was more bearish. Overnight Fed’s Barkin said he does not want to prejudge the December meeting, while Fed’s WIlliams said that he is confident that disinflationary moves will continue but the labor market is strong as is the economy.
Bitcoin is trading at $97500, up $3100 on the day and gettting closer to the Bitcoin $100K. Crude oil is higher and back above $70 at $70.03.
US stock futures are implying a higher open. Nvidia shares are trading near unchanged currently after falling after earnings. The earnings beat expectations but not by enough (?). IN any case, the price is back trading near unchanged on the day. The major indices closed mixed yesterday. The Dow rose 139 points or 0.22%. The S&P closed unchanged and the Nasdaq fell -21.32 points or -0.11% thanks to a late day rally ahead of the Nvidia earnings.
A look at the implied openings today is showing:
- Dow up 151 points
- S&P up 20 points
- Nasdaq up 48 points
European major indices are rebounding. The German Dax is looking to snap a 4-day slide.
- German Dax +0.42%
- France’s CAC -0.11%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.40%
- Spain’s Ibex +0.25%
EURUSD: Yesterday, the EURUSD trading the range for the week and a little. The little was on the downside where the pair extended below the Tuesday low at 1.0523. The Friday low at 1.05158 was also broken with the price reaching a low at 1.0506. That was still short of the low from last week – and the all time low – at 1.04956. Getting below each now – and staying below – is needed to add to the bearish bias.
Today the price action moved higher in the Asian Pacific session, but fell short of the 100 hour MA above at 1.05612 (see blue line on the hourly chart below). Getting above that level is the minimum if the buyers are to take more control. Absent that, and the buyers are still losing. The sellers are in full control.
The price is back down testing the low of a swing area at 1.05158 and the low from the year.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved higher yesterday and broke above the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below). Later it just tested the 100 hour MA and bounced. Buyers remained in the drivers seat.
Today, the price moved lower in the Asian Pacific session and bounced again, but ultimately, the MA was broken and so was the rising 200-hour MA near the same level. The 100 and 200 hour MAs will be the short-term barometer for buyers and sellers. If the price stays below those two MAs at 154.79 and 154.86 currently, the sellers are in control. Conversely, if the price moves above those MAs, the buyers would take back control.
A target on the downside that traders will eye is 153.88 which is the near highs from October 28 and October 29 and then was near swing levels on November 11, November 15, and November 18 (see red numbered circles). On Tuesday, the price traded in a volatile up-and-down range above and below the area, but I expect it to reestablish as a key level going forward. Be aware.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved higher yesterday and tested the high from last Thursday’s trading but fell short of that target. Buyers turned to selles with the rise in the USD and the 100 hour MA was broken in the run lower (blue line on the chart below).
In trading today, that 100-hour MA has stalled the price rises (there were small breaks, but momentum was absent). The price moved to a low of 1.2622 which was below the low from yesterday at at 1.2630, but short of the lows from Tuesday and Monday near 1.2613.
For today, close resistance will be eyed at the 100-hour moving average at 1.26532. On the downside getting below 1.2613 and then the low price from last week at 1.2596, would take the price To the lowest level since May.
USDCHF: The USDCHF held resistance at the 100-hour moving average yesterday (blue line on the chart below), and held support against its 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart below).
Today in the early Asian hours, the price broke below the 200-hour moving average and continued down toward the next target at the 200-day moving average at 0.88199. Support buyers leaned against that he moving average and the price bounced back higher finding resistance against its 200 hour moving average which is now near converged with the 100-hour moving years near 0.8845.
The price has moved back lower.
The 200-day MA is key support at 0.88199. The 100 and 200-hour MAs is key resistance at 0.8845 area. Move below or above those levels should see more momentum in the direction of the break.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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