What are the key technical levels in play as the North American session begins? and why?
EURUSD: The EURUSD moved up to test the 200 day MA and swing area up to 1.08725 yesterday and found willing sellers on the first look. The price backed off into the close and extended to 1.0843 in the Asian Pacific session before moving back to the upside today. The high price once again tested the resistance area starting with the 200 day MA at 1.08687 and the high of a swing area at 1.08725, but after stretching to 1.0874, the price has backed off again.
I talked to the potential for the range-bound potential a few days ago in the video below (on Tuesda). The buyers are bing the aggressor of late, but need to break through 1.08725 with more momentum to open the door for a run toward 1.09069 (50% midpoint) and then the 100 day MA at 1.09355. Absent that, and the sellers will target 1.08347 and then the now rising 100-hour MA at 1.0821 and 200 hour MA at 1.08147.
Battle continues.
USDJPY: The 153.88 was the swing high going back to July 31 before turning lower toward 141.69 less than a week later (that was the carry trade unwind period of selling). On Monday the price moved up to that same level and found modest sellers. On Tuesday, the price once again banged on that door (well ceiling) and found willing sellers. The price yesterday stalled the fall at the 100-hour MA (blue line on the chart below) and bounced into the Asian Pacific session today but stalled at 159.59 before falling, breaking below the 100 hour MA and then through the 200-hour MA (currently at 152.24).
The low price reached 151.914 which I outlined yesterday in this chart from this post where I said “….a move below that level would have traders targeting the rising 200-hour moving average of 151.972. There’s other support on the 4-hour chart at a swing area at 151.85 to 151.937.” (see the picture of the chart below). That is where the buyers did show up (see chart below).
The price is back higher at 152.78 which is below the 100-hour MA abve at 153.02 and above the 200-hour MA below (along with the swing area target).
Buyers and sellers continue to battle between the techinical levels.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved down to retest the 1.2938 level for the 3rd day this week in the European session. The low reached 1.2941 just above that level (see red numbered circles). The price has bounced higher and back above the 100 day MA at 1.29766, and to the natural resistance at 1.30000.
The falling 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart comes in at 1.3011 and would need to be broken to increase the bullish bias. Yesterday, the price did move above that level opening the door for a run to the 50% midpoint at 1.30488, but momentum faded/failed. Gettitn above that MA level is needed to increase the bullish bias.
USDCHF: The USDCHF has been in a range between 0.86289 to 0.8699 (70 pips) over the last 11 days. That is not a lot. Whereas yesterday, the price was trading mostly near the highs and above the 100/200 hour MAs in the middle of the “red box”,, today the bias is below those MAs at 0.8662 and 0.8666. That is the short term barometer for traders. Staying below and the 100 bar MA on 4-hour chart at 0.86394 will then lead to the low of the range at 0.86295. Break below that and should see more selling. Conversely, move above the MAs and the 100 day MA at 0.8678 followed by the high at 0.8700 will be targeted.
USDCAD: The USDCAD has been trending to the upside since the end of September (see hourly chart below). Yesterday, the high price got within 6 or so pips of the 2024 high (not shown on the chart below) from August at 1.39458, and backed off. The low toward the end of day also tested the rising 100 hour MA (blue line currently at 1.3899) and bounced. So support and resistance did their jobs.
Today, the price moved in between the 1.3899 (100 hour MA) and the 2024 high 1.39458 with a high of 1.3922 and rotated lower back toward the 100 hour MA. It would take a move below that MA to give the sellers a victory (has to stay below). If done, ther may be an attraction toward the rising 200 hour MA at 1.38659. The price of the USDCAD has NOT traded below the 200 hour MA since October 2. Absent that, and as I said yesterday, the sellers ARE NOT winning. The buyers are winning.
AUDUSD: The AUDUSD trades above and below the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.65750. However, for most of today, the price trades below the 61.8% tilting the bias in the sellers favor in the short term. The low reached 0.65357.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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