The USD/CHF pair, after trading within a range of 0.8400 to 0.8550 through late August and October, transitioned from consolidation into a trending phase. This shift began as prices broke through key levels in a step-by-step manner, marking the transition from non-trend to trend.
Last week, the price moved above the 50% midpoint of the move down from the April high at 0.87989, and the 200 day MA at 0.88298. The price reached a target area near 0.8914 to 0.8923 and backed off into the close last Friday.
Early this week, the pair moved lower initially, breaking below the 200-day moving average at 0.88298 and reaching the 50% retracement of the decline from the April high at 0.87989, near the natural support at 0.8800. At this level, sellers turned into buyers, driving a reversal higher.
The price rebounded above the 200-day moving average midweek, retested it on Wednesday, and subsequently built momentum to the upside once again. This upward move, supported by broader dollar strength and weaker European currencies, pushed the pair above the 61.8% retracement of the April high at 0.8899 and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923, which now serves as immediate support zones. Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook, with further upside likely into the new trading week. The next major target lies around the psychological 0.9000 level.
Conversely, if the price breaks below 0.8900, along with the lower bound of the swing area at 0.8880, a move back toward the 200-day moving average at 0.88208 becomes a possibility. For now, the pair’s direction hinges on whether it can hold above these key support levels or retrace toward lower technical targets.
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USD/CHF Technical Analysis
The USD/CHF pair transitioned from a consolidation phase to a trending phase, breaking through key levels in a step-by-step manner.
Key Levels:
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Support: 0.8900, 0.8880 (lower bound of swing area)
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Resistance: 0.9000 (psychological level)
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Lower support at the 200-day Moving Average: 0.88208 and 50% retracement at 0.87989 (all it 0.8800)
Trading Strategy:
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Staying above 0.8900 maintains a bullish outlook.
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Break below 0.8900 and 0.8880 could lead to a move toward the 200-day moving average.
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Next major target above 0.8900 is above and below 0.9000 level.
Current Situation:
The pair has built momentum to the upside, pushing above the 61.8% retracement of the April high and a swing area between 0.8914 and 0.8923. The direction now hinges on whether it can hold above key support levels.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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