USDCAD trades to new 2020 high but backs off. What tilts the bias back to the downside?

The USD/CAD reached a new 2024 high, climbing to its highest level since March 2020. The key upside target from that period is 1.4348, with today’s high coming just shy at 1.4331. A sustained move above 1.4348 would signal further bullish momentum, solidifying buyers’ control and extending the ongoing trend higher. In trending markets like this, buyers remain firmly in control until sellers can decisively reverse the trend.

On the downside, the focus shifts to key support levels on the hourly chart, which will indicate whether sellers are beginning to gain traction. The first critical support is at 1.4303, near the underside of a broken topside trendline. A move below this level could open the door for further downside testing, but additional levels would need to break to confirm a shift in momentum.

The next key support is the high from Monday’s trading at 1.41703, which also aligns with a swing low from yesterday. Below that, the rising 100-hour moving average (MA) at 1.4253 provides another critical level to watch. As long as the price remains above these downside levels, buyers retain full control. Sellers need to decisively break below these supports to demonstrate they can regain control of the market.

Technical Analysis: USD/CAD

• Resistance Levels:

  • Key High: 1.4331 (Today’s high).
  • Major Resistance: 1.4348 (High from March 2020).
    • A sustained break above this level would signal further bullish momentum and continuation of the trend.

• Support Levels:

  • Initial Support: 1.4303 (Underside of broken topside trendline on the hourly chart).
    • A move below this level could indicate initial downside probing.
  • Next Target: 1.41703 (High from Monday and a swing low from yesterday).
    • This level acts as a secondary support for sellers to gain confidence.
  • Critical Support: 1.4253 (Rising 100-hour moving average).
    • A break below this would mark a shift toward seller control.

• Market Bias:

  • Buyers remain firmly in control while the price stays above 1.4303 and other downside targets.
  • Sellers need to break below 1.4303, 1.41703, and the 100-hour MA at 1.4253 to shift momentum in their favor.

• Key Focus:

  • Watch for a breakout above 1.4348 to confirm continued bullish dominance.
  • Monitor hourly support levels to assess whether sellers can gain control.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.



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