President elect Trump is saying that the Washington Post article on tariffs is wrong and that has led to a quick move to the upside in the USD, a quick move higher in yields (2 YEAR back to unchanged/10 year up 2.5 bps to 4.62%) and a rotation lower in stocks. The major indices are still higher however with the S&P up 33.75 points and the Nasdaq up 171 points).
The question that needs to be answered is “What is wrong with the story?”. However, up and down volatility from news is obviously increased. Over time, that reactions might be more limited as markets get familiar with volatility in the Trump administration once again, but for now (for today), the ups and downs can be quick.
EURUSD: The EURUSD has moved from about 1.0411 to 1.03515. Technically, the price has fallen below its 200-hour moving average at 1.0376 and the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.0378. That area is now close resistance in the short-term.
On the downside, the 100 hour moving average at 1.03418 and swing area down to 1.0332 is now the next key swing targetsto get to and through to increase the bearish bias. Move below, and the door is open for more downside momentum (see red-numbered circles on the chart below).
USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved up to retest the 100/200 hour MAs at 157.158 and 157.318 respectively. Get above those levels would tilt the short-term bias more to the upside. Stay below and the sellers are still holding more control (in the short-term).
So far the moving averages are stalling the rise as traders lean against the key barometer for both buyers and sellers.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD moved sharply lower after the Trump comments, and that took the price back below the 200-hour moving average of 1.25083, and briefly below the swing area between 1.24739 and 1.2487 along with the 100-hour moving average at 1.24746. The low price reached 1.24681 but has bounced back.
To increase the bearish bias moving below 1.24739 and staying below would open the door for further selling momentum. Conversely hold that level and get above the 200-hour moving average at 1.25083, takes some of the sting out of the recent tumble.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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