TradeCompass: DAX Futures Analysis and Price Prediction
Current Price OverviewDAX futures are trading at 21,377, positioned just above critical levels that dictate today’s price action:
- Point of Control (POC): The day’s primary volume concentration.
- VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price): Reflects market equilibrium.
- Value Area Low (VAL): The lower boundary of the fair value range.
The Value Area High (VAH) stands at 21,444, with the 2nd Upper Standard Deviation of VWAP located at 21,475. These levels are key to predicting future price movements for the DAX.
DAX Futures Bearish Price Prediction
This analysis prioritizes a short bias, offering high-reward opportunities as the DAX shows relative weakness.
Key Entry Levels for Short Positions
- 21,397: Just below the 21,400 round number, a psychological pivot.
- 21,417: Below the 1st Upper Standard Deviation of VWAP, ideal for additional entries.
- 21,430: A potential third entry near high-volume nodes (HVNs), offering better trade positioning.
- 21,444: If price revisits the VAH, this provides a strong confirmation level for shorts.
Some readers may encounter this TradeCompass analysis at a time when the price is different from the planned entries, and they might still choose to take the short position based on their assessment of the reward-to-risk ratio. For instance, if the price is at $21,376 or even $21,350, and they notice that the price has moved below the Value Area Low of $21,362, which is also below the POC and the VWAP, they could interpret this as a signal that bears are taking control. Despite not entering at the ideal level, they may find the trade worthwhile if the potential stop-loss, initial profit target, and extended targets still justify the setup.
Use this as your guide, but always trade at your own risk and discretion
Short Target Levels
- 21,278: Above the VWAP of the open, an early profit-taking zone.
- 21,146: Just above yesterday’s VAH, a significant support target.
- 21,051: Above yesterday’s VAL, aligning with further bearish momentum.
- 20,900–19,900: Deep swing targets for multi-day traders, maximizing the potential of a sustained decline.
Risk Management:
- Use 21,485 (just above the breakout threshold) as a stop-loss.
- Adjust stops to breakeven or secure profits after achieving the initial target at 21,278.
Bullish Price Prediction for DAX Futures
Bullish Entry Trigger
A breakout above 21,485 signals bullish momentum, opening the path toward higher price levels.
Bullish Target Levels
- 21,520: The first significant resistance post-breakout.
- 21,594: A secondary level near high-volume areas.
- 21,700+: A potential stretch target for traders riding sustained upward momentum.
Stop-Loss Guidance:
- Below 21,444 (VAH) to manage risk if momentum reverses.
DAX Futures Analysis: Supporting Factors
- Relative Weakness: The DAX shows signs of lagging performance, previously buoyed by the Nasdaq and stocks like Netflix. This rally could fade, enhancing the bearish case.
- Reward-to-Risk Advantage: Short setups currently offer a more attractive risk-reward ratio, especially for swing traders.
- Key Price Level at 21,355: If the price sustains below POC, VWAP, and VAL, it confirms bearish dominance.
Execution Strategy
- Partial Profit-Taking: Secure gains progressively at outlined targets to mitigate risk.
- Stop Adjustments: Shift stops to breakeven or higher after hitting early targets for added security.
- Swing Trade Potential: Hold positions beyond intraday timeframes to capitalize on larger moves.
While our primary goal is to capture a larger move, we recognize the importance of managing risk effectively. To achieve this, we have pinpointed specific price levels and detailed the rationale behind taking initial partial profits. This approach allows us to secure gains early, reducing exposure and ensuring we stay disciplined even as we aim for bigger targets. By identifying these key levels, we create a structured path to mitigate potential losses while maximizing the opportunity for a significant move.
Thank you for following along, and we invite you to visit us daily for more insightful TradeCompass ideas and strategies. Always do your own research, trade the DAX at your risk only, and visit ForexLive.com for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.
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