The USD is correcting lower today as the North Amercan traders enter for the day. US yields are lower. The broader stock indices are higher.
What are the key levels in the Forex today?
- EURUSD: The EURUSD extended the decline below the next downside target yesterday at the 1.07767 level (low from August.1) The momentum below that level took the pair to a low of 1.07605, but momentum to the next target at 1.0719-34 could not be sustained. The price moved higher. Today, sellers tried again to move below the same level but only got to 1.07695 before snapping back higher. The price has since moved back toesar the swing low from last week at 1.0810 (high reached 1.08075). Sellers had their shot, they missed and the buyers are making a play. Can they get back above the low from last week at 1.08106 and then the falling 100 hour MA at 1.08165? Recall from Monday, the pair stalled at the 100-hour MA and 200 day MA near 1.0870 area and started the run lower. That increased the falling 100 hour MAs importance going forward. It will take a move above to give the buyers more confidence today (and control).
- GBPUSD: The GBPUSD continued its run to the downside yesterday and in doing so, moved away from the 100-day MA (currently at 1.2965). The low took out the low from earlier this week and a modest target at 1.2938 on it’s way to a low of 1.2906. The bounce back higher today, has seen the price move back above the 100-day MA at 1.2965. The price currently trades at 1.2976 and reached a high or 1.29808. The next upside target on more momentum will targe the September 11 low near the nice round number of 1.3000. Get back above it and there should be more upaide probing. Like the EURUSD, the GBPUSD sellers had their shot below the 100 day MA. Now the ball in the short-term seems to be back in the buyers court to take back even more control (if they can).
- USDJPY: The USDJPY was the strongest of the major pairs vs the USD yesterday after breaking above the 100 day MA (at 150.66 currently) on Tuesday and the 200 day MA on Wednesday (at 151.388 currently). The pair also moved above a swing area near 151.92 on its way to a high of 153.18. That fell short of the 61.8% target at 153.397 (the USDJPY average range is 160 pips so within 20 or so pips is fairly close). Today, as the USD weakens, the pair has moved back down toward the swing area at 151.92 and below that, the 200 day MA at 151.389. Those levels – especially the 200 day MA will be key support today and going forward.
- USDCHF: The USDCHF starts the day with only a 21 pip trading range (Average over the last month is 53 pips). That makes it the least volatile of the major pairs (39% of the normal range over the last month). Technically, the pair yesterday broke above the highs from last week at 0.8668 but could not stretch to the 100 day MA at 0.86934 (high reached 0.86854). The price backed to the downside and fell back below the high from last week at 0.8668. The current price is trading at 0.8656. The buyers shot and missed on the break. Watching 0.86684 now as close resistance with the low from the week and the level where the 38.2% of the move down from July is found at 0.86318 is the next key target. If the buyers are to stay in the game, they would need to hold that level on any dip.
- USDCAD: The Bank of Canada cut rates by 50 basis points yesterday, and the USDCAD sat in a swing area between 1.38337 and 1.3847. Later during the press conference (and with help from USD buying), the pair extended higher stretching toward the next target at 1.38643. The high reached 1.3862. The price rotated lower back into the swing area and today, the price has moved back below that level to a base from earlier this week at 1.3813. A move below that level should give sellers more probing opportunity with 1.3786 to 1.3792 as the next target. Hold the level and the decline is just a blip in the upside momentum.
- AUDUSD: The AUDUSD reached and breached (below) its 200 day MA yesterday at 0.6628. The price also moved below the low of a swing area between 0.66189 and 0.6628. The break was short lived, however, and the USD selling today has taken the price back above the area and the 200 day MA. Sellers turned to corrective buyers. The price has move back up to the low from last week at 0.66578. Get above that level and a run back toward the other key daily MA – the 100 day MA – cannot be ruled out at 0.66949. Say below the low from last week and traders will eye a break of the 50% of the move up from August at 0.6645 to tilt the short term bias back to the downside. Buyers are making a play.
- NZDUSD: The NZDUSD followed the USD higher yesterday with the pair running below swing area support between 0.6031 and 0.60387. The momentum took the price to a low just below the natural support at 0.6000 (to a low of 0.59976) before snapping back higher. The price is now back up retesting the aforementioned swing area between 0.6031 and 0.60387. A move above is needed to give the buyers more confidence for upside probing with the broken 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.60509 as the next target. Move above that and sellers and buyers start to battle more after the sharp run lower over the last few weeks.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
Source link
