As the North American session begins the JPY is the strongest and the CAD is the weakest as the NA session begins. The USD is mixed to lower to start the new trading week.
This week there will be two- central bank meetings and rate announcements. The Bank of Canada on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday are both expected to cut rates. Later in the week, the US jobs report will be released (on Friday). The estimates are for a gain of 185K versus 175K last month. The employment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.9%
If you are looking for Fedspeak, think again. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is June 11 and 12. With the calendar now just 9 days from the meeting that puts the Fed in the blackout period. As a result, there are no more Fed officials speaking until after the meeting. For your view of the rules:
- “The blackout period will begin at 12:00 a.m. Eastern Time the second Saturday before a meeting and end at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time the day after a meeting.
- For example, if the Committee meeting starts on a Tuesday, the blackout period will begin at the start of the Saturday that falls ten days earlier, and if the meeting ends on a Wednesday, the blackout period will end at the end of Thursday.”
Today in Europe, the June PMI data was released. The data was mixed. Below is a summary of each:
Spanish Manufacturing PMI (EUR).; Beat expectations
- Actual: 54.0
- Forecast: 52.5
- Previous: 52.2
- Impact: Positive; better than expected.
Swiss Manufacturing PMI (CHF) Beat expectations
- Actual: 46.4
- Forecast: 45.4
- Previous: 41.4
- Impact: Positive; better than expected, showing improvement.
Italian Manufacturing PMI (EUR) Missed expectations
- Actual: 45.6
- Forecast: 47.9
- Previous: 47.3
- Impact: Negative; worse than expected, indicating a contraction.
French Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Missed expectations
- Actual: 46.4
- Forecast: 46.7
- Previous: 46.7
- Impact: Slightly negative; slightly below expectations and previous value, indicating a contraction.
German Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR): Met expectations
- Actual: 45.4
- Forecast: 45.4
- Previous: 45.4
- Impact: Neutral; matches forecast and previous value, indicating continued contraction.
Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR):Missed expecations
- Actual: 47.3
- Forecast: 47.4
- Previous: 47.4
- Impact: Neutral to slightly negative; slightly below forecast and previous value, indicating a contraction.
UK Final Manufacturing PMI (GBP): Missed expectations
- Actual: 51.2
- Forecast: 51.3
- Previous: 51.3
- Impact: Slightly negative; slightly below expectations and previous value, indicating a slight expansion.
China PMI data was mixed.
Today, the US will release their PMI data along with the S&P./Global will version:
- S&P Global will be released at 9:45 AM with expectations of 50.9 versus 50.9 preliminary
- ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected 49.8 versus 49.2+ month. The prices paid is expected 60.0 versus 60.9
US construction spending will also be released at 10 AM with a gain of 0.2% versus -0.2% last month.
OPEC+ met with:
- OPEC+ extends production cuts announced last year into 2025.
- A cut of 1.65 million barrels per day, announced in April 2023, extended until the end of 2025.
- A cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, announced in November, extended until the end of September this year, gradually phased out by September 2025.
- Previous reductions of 3.66 million barrels per day from 2022 and 2023 remain in place.
- UAE’s production quota increased by 300,000 barrels per day, phased in gradually from January through September 2025.
- OPEC+ to restrict supply for the next 18 months, with gradual increases in market supply starting later this year.
A snapshot of the other markets as the North American session begins shows
- Crude oil is trading up $0.11 or +0.14% at $77.10. At this time on Friday, the price was at $77.91
- Gold is trading up $2.99 or 0.12% at $2329.75. At this time on Friday, the price was higher at $2344.40
- Silver is trading down three cents or 0.09% at $30.34. At this time on Friday, the price was at $31.31
- Bitcoin currently trades at $69017. At this time on Friday, the price was trading at $68,395
- Ethereum is trading at repairs and $3806.02. At this time on Friday, the price trading at $3805.50
In the premarket, the snapshot of the major indices are higher after Friday’s mixed results. Thanks to a late-day surge, the NASDAQ index closed just below unchanged. The S&P and Dow industrial average rose. GameStop shares are surging as RoaringKitty is back in play with a huge option position at $20 strike (with a short expiration). Shares are trading at $40.20 up 17.20 cents
- Dow Industrial Average futures are implying a gain of 15.25 points. On Friday, the index rose 574.84 points or 1.51% at 38686.33
- S&P futures are implying a gain of 14.99 points. Yesterday, the index rose 42.03 points or 0.80% at 5277.50
- Nasdaq futures are implying a gain of 95.10 points. Yesterday, the index fell -2.06 points or -0.01% at 16735.02
European stock indices are trading higher today in the US morning snapshot:
- German DAX, +0.69%
- France CAC , +0.29%
- UK FTSE 100, +0.11%
- Spain’s Ibex, +0.66%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.65% (delayed 10 minutes).
Shares in the Asian Pacific markets were mostly higher:
- Japan’s Nikkei 225, +1.13%
- China’s Shanghai Composite Index, -0.27%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index,+1.79%
- Australia S&P/ASX index, +0.77%
Looking at the US debt market, yields are trading lower to start the week:
- 2-year yield 4.851%, -4.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.941%
- 5-year yield 4.473%, -5.6 basis points at this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.579%
- 10-year yield 4.463%, -4.9 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.556%
- 30-year yield 4.612%, -4.0 basis points. At this time yesterday, the yield was at 4.683%
Looking at the treasury yield curve the spreads are mixed this time on Friday
- The 2-10 year spread is at -39.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -38.7 basis points.
- The 2-30 year spread is at -24.1 basis points. At this time yesterday, the spread was at -25.9 basis points.
In the European debt market yields in the benchmark 10-year yields are trading lower::
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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