I think this is mostly a mechanical move as low-rate trades get re-worked. The Russell 2000 is up a whopping 2.5% in its best day of the year while the Nasdaq is now down nearly 1%.
That speaks to hedges being unwound.
Some of that is that lower inflation will lead to rate cuts and yields are down 9-13 bps across the curve.
I also worry that this is as good as it gets for tech. The AI boom has led to a massive run in megacap tech and those stocks also act as safe havens and insulation against high rates (because of their low debt levels).
We could be shifting paradigms here towards more worries about growth and at the same time hitting a wall on AI spending and hype. Even if that’s not the case, you can see the temptation to take some profits after a run like this in the Nasdaq:
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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