USD
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
unemployment rate lower. - The US Q1 GDP
surprisingly missed expectations although the core components showed a strong
economy, nonetheless. - The US PCE came in line with expectations.
- The US NFP beat expectations across the board
although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts. - The US PMIs missed expectations in April with the
commentary citing lower inflationary pressures but also increased layoffs. - The market expects the first rate cut in
September.
NZD
- The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
unchanged as
expected with no change as the central bank continues to state that the OCR
will need to remain at restrictive level for a sustained period. - The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance. - The labour market report beat expectations across the
board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth. - The Manufacturing PMI improved in February remaining in
contraction while the Services PMI increased further holding on in
expansion. - The market expects the first cut in
August.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD managed
to erase most of the losses from the US CPI release and almost reached the key trendline
resistance around the 0.60 handle where we had also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. The
price couldn’t push right into it as the pair rolled over before that. We may
be heading back into the 0.5860 support but the
sellers will need to break some key levels on the lower timeframes to keep
pushing to the downside.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price bounced
from the key support zone around the 0.5920 level where the buyers stepped in
with a defined risk below it to position for a rally back into the major
trendline targeting a break above it. The sellers, on the other hand, will want
to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 0.5860
support.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
price has been diverging with
the MACD for
some time as it was rallying into the major trendline. This is generally a sign
of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or reversals. In this case, it
led to a pullback into the support zone but a break below it would confirm a
reversal. This week is full of economic data which will likely give us a
direction for the next few weeks.
Upcoming Events
Today, we have the US Q1 Employment Cost Index and
the Consumer Confidence report. Tomorrow, we get the New Zealand Jobs data, and
later in the day the US ADP, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Job Openings and
the FOMC rate decision. On Thursday, we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP and ISM Services PMI.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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