Morgan Stanley's Wilson says a 10% fall in S&P 500 by US election is 'highly likely'

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Wilson spoke in an interview with Bloomberg TV, citing uncertainty over when the FOMC will cut rates, firms facing diminished pricing power, resulting an increased likelihood of disappointing earnings results.

  • “The average company has not had good earnings results,”
  • the big gain in the S&P 500 YTD 2024 has been powered by a small number of companies
  • price to earnings multiples have been rising, “Valuations to me look very unexciting”

Wilson has recently lifted his base-case 12-month forecast for the S&P500 in a year, to 5,400 points, from his previous forecast of 4,500.

As an aside, UBS is looking for a good earnings season:

  • US stocks – Q2 earnings seasonn about to kick off – UBS looking for solidly higher

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.



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