The DZY index is trading up 0.9% in early US trading with mixed results. Versus the major currencies:
- EUR up 0.12%
- JPY down -0.21%
- GBP down -0.17%
- CHF up 0.29%
- CAD up 0.37%
- AUD up 0.46%
- NZD of 0.40%
Below is a technical look to kickstart the trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.
As the North American session begins, the stock futures for the major US stock markets are implying a lower open. For the Dow it is working on the 9th day in a row lower. The largest negative string in over 6 years. The Nasdaq index closed at a record yesterday after rising 247 points or 1.24%. The Nasdaq is down -40 points at the moment. The S&P is down -15.33 points currently after rising 22.99 points.
The US debt market is showing rising yields with gains of 2 to 4 basis points across the curve.
IN other markets,
- Crude oil is down -$1.25 or -1.77% at $69.46
- Gold is down -$8.17 or -0.31% at $2644.99
- Silver is down -$0.19 or -0.60% at $30.32
- Bitcoin is trading near $107,000 with a high today of $107, 809 and a low at $105,736
Looking at the economic data in Europe today the data was mixed with German and EU ZEW data showing mixed results, the Ifo data in German also mixed. The UK employment data was stronger than expectations.
Economic Data
- EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Dec): Actual 17 vs. Prev. 12.5 → BEAT expectations.
- German ZEW Current Conditions (Dec): Actual -93.1 vs. Est. -93.0 and Prev. -91.4 → MISSED expectations (slightly worse).
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): Actual 15.7 vs. Est. 6.5 and Prev. 7.4 → BEAT expectations.
- German Ifo Current Conditions (Dec): Actual 85.1 vs. Est. 84.0 and Prev. 84.3 → BEAT expectations.
- German Ifo Expectations (Dec): Actual 84.4 vs. Est. 87.5 and Prev. 87.2 → MISSED expectations.
- German Ifo Business Climate (Dec): Actual 84.7 vs. Est. 85.6 and Prev. 85.7 → MISSED expectations.
- UK Employment Change (Oct): Actual 173k vs. Est. 2k and Prev. 219k → BEAT expectations.
- UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) (Oct): Actual 5.2% vs. Est. 5.0% and Prev. 4.8%, Rev. 4.9% → BEAT expectations.
- UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (Oct): Actual 5.2% vs. Est. 4.6% and Prev. 4.3%, Rev. 4.4% → BEAT expectations.
Summary:
- BEAT: EU ZEW Survey, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German Ifo Current Conditions, UK Employment Change, UK Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus), UK Avg Wk Earnings.
- MISSED: German ZEW Current Conditions, German Ifo Expectations, German Ifo Business Climate.
Cerntral bank comments from the ECB were mixed as well.
Central Bank Comments.
- ECB’s Kazimir says inflation risks are well balanced
- ECB’s Rehn says monetary policy will cease to be restrictive in later winter/early spring 2025 (between January and June 2025).
- ECB’s Rehn says rate cuts will depend on incoming data; inflation in the Euro area stabilizing at ECB’s 2% target.
Looking at the US calendar today:
- US retail sales is expected to rise by 0.5% versus 0.4% last month. Ex autos is expected 0.4% versus 0.1%, and the control group is expected 0.4% versus -0.1% last month.
- Canada CPI inflation is expected 0.1% versus 0.4%. YoY is expected at 2.0% versus 2.0% last month with the median 2.4% versus 2.5% last month and the Trim 2.5% vs 2.6% last month
- US industrial production is expected 0.3% versus -0.3% last month and capacity utilization expected 77.3% versus 77.1% last month.
- US business inventories are expected at 0.1% versus 0.1% last month.
- NAHB housing market index is expected of 47 versus 46 last month
The US treasury will auction off 20 or bonds at 1 PM ET.
Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will announce its interest-rate decision with expectations of a cut of 25 basis points
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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