As the US session gets started the EURUSD and USDJPY are consolidating the recent moves (lower for the EURUSD and higher for the USDJPY). The GBPUSD is sharply lower after BOE’s Bailey signalled the central bank may be more aggressive with easing. In the kickstart video, I take a look at each of those currency pairs from a technical perspective.
EURUSD: The EURUSD fell sharply this week. Yesterday the price consolidated and then closed lower. Today the market moved down toward a downside target 1.10258 and found support buyers. In the text from this Kickstart video from yesterday, I wrote:
ON the downside, getting below 1.10539 – and staying below that level – would have traders looking toward 1.10258, and then the other lows from September which bottomed near 1.1000.
The low price today reached 1.10242 just below that level and has bounced. On the topside the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August 1 lower comes in at 1.10463 and that is holding resistance.
USDJPY: The USDJPY moved sharply higher yesterday and tested the high price from last week at 146.465 near the close of the day. In the video yesterday and the text to the video, I outlined the level as a target saying:
On the top side the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the August high at 145.639 is the next target. Get above that level and opens the door toward the high price from last week at 146.51.
The actual high from last week was at 146.465. The high price stalled in that area at the close.
Today, the price action has been up and down after initially moving higher to a swing area target between 147.20 and 147.338.
GBPUSD: For the GBPUSD, this pair was the big mover as BOE Bailey hinted that the central bank could be more aggressive in its easing. The market focused on that comment. In addition, positioning in the currency has been overbought and the moves lowered of below some key technical levels that helped to port fuel on the sellers fire.
Yesterday, in this video and the text along with it, I said:
If the downside is to be further explored, getting below the 38.2% retracement and then the rising 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.32535, would be needed to increase the bearish bias.
In trading today that was done with momentum and the selling has not stopped until reaching a low today of 1.3095. In the process, the price has moved below its 200-hour moving average on the 4-hour chart at 1.31945, and a swing area between 1.3114 and 1.3144. The swing area is now a close risk level for traders today. Stay below keeps the sellers more in control. On the downside watch 1.30867, and then 1.30488 which is a 50% midpoint of the move up from the August low.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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