The firm argues that the softer conditions in the labour market may exceed expectations with early signs of a wave of layoffs. Adding that they see inflation easing further from hereon, thus expecting the Fed to cut by 50 bps in both September and November next.
Mind you, the forecast of a 25% recession probability was only put forward at the start of last month. Fickle me not. From earlier: JP Morgan Dimon says odds of a “soft landing” are around 35% to 40%, recession more likely
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
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