It’s a big week coming up for oil, especially on Tuesday and Wednesday (FOMC Wednesday too!):
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) will release their latest monthly oil market reports
- OPEC on Tuesday June 11
- IEA on Wednesday June 12
Last week(end), June 2, OPEC said it would extend its production cuts through September, then begin easing some of them gradually from October. Other supply cuts will extend through 2025. I posted on these a week ago:
- Goldman Sachs says the OPEC+ meeting outcome is bearish for oil
On the demand side, OPEC is still forecasting high levels of global crude demand in 2024 and 2025. But OPEC officials have said they’d like to see further signs of economic growth improving, and central banks start lowering interest rates. They already got some of that with the Bank of Canada and European Central Bank last week:
- Bank of Canada rate cut – the BoC isn’t done, another 50bp of cuts in 2024, more in 2025
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 6 Jun: ECB cuts rates but it is a hawkish cut.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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