The news of Marko Kolanovic leaving JP Morgan is all over the place. While details are thin (basically non-existent) the speculation is his departure comes due to being bearish during the enormous surge for US stocks.
Dow Jones/Market Watch with the background:
- Kolanovic’s departure from the bank follows a two-year stretch of disappointing market calls that saw him remain bullish as stocks tumbled in 2022, only to turn bearish just as the market started to recover in the fourth quarter.
- Since the start of 2024, Kolanovic has maintained a year-end S&P 500 target of 4,200 … the lowest among major Wall Street banks by a considerable margin
- reiterated his target only last week
Kolanovic will no doubt be flooded with job offers, he has much to offer despite being on the wrong side of the market for a time.
He is not alone in calling for a stock market collapse. And a Hollywood ending (yeah, this ain’t Hollywood, but let’s just imagine) would play out something like this … Canada-based BCA Research recently warned that the S&P 500 could fall to 3,750 by early 2025 (this info via Fox):
- economy will fall into a recession either this year or in early 2025
- S&P 500 could tumble to 3,750
BCA cite:
- labor market will slow notably in coming months, which will weigh heavily on consumer spending
- “The reason the U.S. avoided a recession in 2022 and 2023 was because the economy was operating along the steep side of the Phillips curve”
- “When the labor supply curve is nearly vertical, weaker labor demand will mainly lead to lower wage growth and falling job openings. In other words, an immaculate disinflation”
Meanwhile, for those of us trading the S&P 500, it was another record high on Wednesday:
- S&P and Nasdaq indices closing at new records again
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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