Fundamental
Overview
Gold yesterday rallied into
a new all-time high following the US data release. Seems like the market
focused more on the miss in the US
job openings rather than the strong beat in the US
consumer confidence report, which is more forward-looking.
In the bigger picture, gold
remains in a bullish trend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid the
Fed’s easing cycle. The pullbacks will likely be triggered by a repricing in
rate cuts expectations but unless the Fed’s reaction function changes, the
uptrend should remain intact.
Next week, we have the US
election and that is going to be a huge catalyst for gold. In fact, a Trump
victory, and more specifically a Republican sweep, will likely raise real
yields on higher growth and less rate cuts expectations and trigger a strong
selloff.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold managed to rally into a new all-time high yesterday following the
US data release. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a
better risk to reward setup around the major trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to start targeting new lows.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have now another minor trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. The buyers will likely lean on it to position for new highs, while
the sellers will look for a break lower to target a pullback into the major
trendline.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see the break of the all-time high yesterday and the rally into the 2790 level
as the bullish momentum increased. There’s not much to add here although the
buyers will have a better risk to reward setup around the previous all-time
high level. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US ADP and the US GDP. Tomorrow, we have the US PCE, the US
Jobless Claims and the US Employment Cost Index. Finally, on Friday, we
conclude the week with the US NFP and the US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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