Fundamental
Overview
Gold dropped back inside
the previous range following some hotter than expected US inflation figures.
In the bigger picture, the
market’s pricing remains largely unchanged around three rate cuts by the end of
2025 but the rise in real yields is weighing on the market due to stronger
growth and stickier inflation expectations.
Moreover, tomorrow we have
the FOMC decision and although the central bank will likely match the market’s
pricing, we could have an overall hawkish event. The market participants might
want to err on the defensive side going into the event which could limit the
upside in gold.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold dropped all the way back to the previous consolidation levels. We
have now a bigger range between the 2721 resistance
and the 2600 support. The market participants will likely continue to play the
range until we get a breakout on either side.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price is now consolidating below the resistance of the previous
range. This is where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk
above the resistance to position for a drop into the 2600 support. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to position for a
rally back into the 2721 resistance.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the sellers will look for a drop from these
levels, while the buyers will look for a break to the upside to target the next
resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we get the US Retail Sales data. Tomorrow, we have the FOMC Policy
Decision. On Thursday, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday,
we conclude the week with the US PCE data.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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