Fundamental
Overview
Gold has been on a consistent
bid ever since the softer US inflation data last week eased the concerns around
a more hawkish rate path and led to a fall in real yields. Tonight, we got some
more easing in yields as Trump said that he would
rather not use tariffs on China.
Gold has been rallying
recently both on the uncertainty around tariffs as a safe haven and on lower
yields on positive tariffs news. Kind of a win-win scenario. The biggest threat
to gold is a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. So, as long as
the data doesn’t point towards that, the bullish trend should remain intact.
Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold managed to break above the key 2721 resistance and extended the gains into
new highs as the buyers piled in more aggressively to target a new all-time
high. The sellers will likely step in around the 2790 level with a defined risk
above it to position for a drop back into the 2600 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current bullish
momentum. From a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for a rally into a new
all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking below the trendline to extend the pullback into the 2721 level.
Gold Technical Analysis
– 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price rallied already into the upper bound of the average daily range for today. Chasing the price here isn’t
a good idea from a risk management perspective. The buyers will likely lean on
the trendline or the 2760 level to keep pushing into new highs, while the
sellers will look for a break below the trendline to target new lows.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we conclude the week with the Flash US PMIs.
Watch the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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