GBP
- The BoE left interest rates unchanged as expected but with Haskel and
Mann this time voting for a hold instead of a hike. - The employment report missed expectations with a big jump
in the unemployment rate although the wage growth increased. - The UK CPI beat expectations with Services inflation
remaining sticky, which continues to support the BoE’s patient stance. - The latest UK PMIs showed the Services PMI beating expectations
and the Manufacturing PMI missing forecasts and slipping back into contraction. - The UK Retail Sales missed expectations across the
board. - The market expects the first rate
cut in August.
JPY
- The BoJ finally exited the negative interest rates
policy as expected
at the last meeting raising interest rates by 10 bps bringing the rate to a
target between 0.00-0.10%. Moreover, the central bank scrapped the yield curve
control and the ETF purchases, while maintaining QE in place. - The latest Unemployment Rate missed expectations although it
continues to hover around cycle lows. - The Japanese PMIs improved further for both the
Manufacturing and Services measures although the former remains in
contractionary territory. - The latest Japanese wage data came in line with expectations.
- The Japanese CPI came in line with expectations.
- The market expects another rate hike
from the BoJ this year although the timing remains uncertain.
GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that GBPJPY fell
once again into the lower bound of the channel where the buyers piled in to
push the price back into the highs. The pair continues to get rejected from the
193.00 resistance and this
led to a rangebound price action. The buyers will need to break through the
level to increase the bullish bets into new highs, while the sellers will look
for a break below the lower bound of the channel to position for a drop into
the 187.96 level.
GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see more clearly the
range between the 193.00 resistance and the 190.00 support. The market
participants will likely continue to play the range by selling at resistance
and buying at support until we get a catalyst to trigger a breakout on either
side.
GBPJPY Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that the
latest push higher diverged with
the MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it might be a signal for another reversal from the
resistance into the support. The sellers should step in around these levels
with a defined risk above the resistance to position for a break below the
lower bound of the channel with a better risk to reward setup. The buyers, on
the other hand, should wait to buy around the support.
Upcoming Events
Tomorrow we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures. On Friday we conclude the week with the BoJ Rate Decision, the Tokyo
CPI and later in the day, the US PCE report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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