- US futures keep the calm so far on the day
- Euro stays little changed after flurry of data
- Eurozone July final consumer confidence -13.0 vs -13.0 prelim
- Eurozone Q2 preliminary GDP 0.3% vs. 0.2% Q/Q expected
- Italy Q2 preliminary GDP 0.2% vs 0.2% Q/Q expected
- Germany Q2 preliminary GDP -0.1% vs. 0.1% Q/Q expected
- Bavaria July CPI +2.5% vs +2.7% y/y prior
- What are the main events for today?
- European equities mostly a touch higher to start the day
- Switzerland July KOF leading indicator index 101.0 vs 102.4 expected
- Spain July preliminary CPI +2.8% vs +3.0% y/y expected
- Spain Q2 preliminary GDP 0.8% vs 0.5% Q/Q expected
- USD/JPY claws its way back up above the 155.00 mark
- Earnings maketh the market
- Eurostoxx futures +0.2% in early European trading
- China’s Politburo holds meeting to set out economic priorities for H2 2024
- France Q2 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% q/q expected
- USD/JPY creeps a little higher on the day
- FX keeps the calm ahead of busy calendar day in Europe
The
European session was relatively calm. The Eurozone Flash Q2 GDP showed a pickup in the
second quarter, which is something we already knew from the PMIs, while the
German economy continues to be the “sick man of Europe” as GDP disappointed
showing a contraction.
We also got
some CPI readings from Spain and Germany which showed further easing in
inflation with the focus now switching to the Eurozone Flash CPI being released
tomorrow. The market is seeing 50 bps of easing by year-end with a 63%
probability of a rate cut in September.
The notable
mover has been the JPY as it continues to drift lower heading into the BoJ
decision tomorrow. We got a breakout of a key trendline in USD/JPY today which
might have increased the bullish momentum but overall, it seems like there’s
some general squaring of positions into the risk event.
Looking
elsewhere, we are basically flat across all the other markets. The US Dollar,
equities, bonds and gold are slightly positive, while crude oil and bitcoin are
slightly negative on the day.
The focus will now switch to the US data with Job Openings and Consumer Confidence being released at 14:00 GMT/10:00 ET.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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