- Australian Treasurer Chalmers says Q2 GDP will also be ‘difficult’
- US ISM Services PMI for May due Wednesday, the ranges of estimates (ADP jobs number too)
- Bank of Canada policy decision due Wednesday, 5 June 2024, 25bp rate cut expected
- China Caixin Services PMI for May 2024 54.0 (prior 52.5)
- Australian Q1 2024 GDP +0.1% q/q (expected +0.2%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1097 (vs. estimate at 7.2418)
- ECB Board member Kerstin af Jochnick speaking Wednesday
- Japan Services PMI for May 2024: 53.8 (prior 50.6)
- BlackRock, Citadel Securities plan to start a new national stock exchange in Texas
- Poll predicts some mild weakness ahead for the USD
- “Widening ownership is going to be propelling Bitcoin to $150,000”
- Japan data: April total cash earnings +2.1% y/y (real wages -0.7%)
- More from RBA’s Bullock – If inflation proves sticky, won;t hesitate to hike rates
- Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock says she expects Q1 GDP growth to be low
- Australian May Services PMI (final) 52.5 (prior 53.1)
- New Zealand data: Q1 Terms of trade +5.1% q/q (expected +3.1%)
- US Energy Secretary says sees no huge increase in oil and gas prices in ‘next short while’
- S&P 500 to hit 5,500 in just three week’s time
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 4 Jun: JOLTs job openings fall to lowest since Feb 2021
- Deutsche Bank analyst sees one 2024 Federal Reserve rate cut, “all the way in December”
- US House Speaker Johnson speaks on Trump likely firing Fed Chair Powell
- US stocks close modestly higher
- Oil – private survey of inventory shows a large headline crude oil build vs draw expected
- UBS says its even more convinced Gen AI will boost productivity. Raises equity forecast.
- Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 5 June, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
Late
in the US session brought the weekly oil inventory private survey
from API. This showed that U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate
stocks all rose last week. Crude stocks rose by more than 4 million
barrels in the week ended May 31, against analysts’ forecasts for a
circa 2 million-barrel draw. Gasoline stocks also rose more than 4
million barrels, a much bigger build than the 2 million-barrel
increase expected. Quite the bearish surprises. The official US
government inventory report for the week is due Wednesday morning US
time, at 10am Eastern.
Oil
prices dipped, but have since retraced.
Reserve
Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke in parliament today, before
an upper house
Economics Legislation Committee.
Bullock
didn’t add to what we already know.
Japanese
wages data for April followed, base pay jumped by its largest since
1994. Efforts by the Japanese administration and large firms to grant
three-decade high wage rises are showing up in the data. Having said
this, inflation-adjusted, ‘real’, wages fell for the 25th
consecutive month. USD/JPY has risen on the session, retracing a
portion of its big fall on Tuesday.
Australian
Q1 GDP came in lower than consensus expectations at just +0.1% q/q /
+1.1% y/y. The implied RBA estimate was around +1.3%. In per capita
terms the economy shrunk (-0.4% q/q and -1.0% y/y). If there is a
positive to come from the data its that household spending (a
surprise jump) was resilient. The savings rate did decline though,
indicating a further run-down of extra savings accumulated during the
pandemic.
AUD/USD
popped a little higher after the data (NZD/USD up also), with some
citing the better household spending data in the numbers as a reason
for the RBA to be not too concerned with cutting rates soon.
China’s
services PMI
(Caixin) in
May accelerated at its
fastest rate in
10 months. Employment
expanded for the first time in four months.
Apart
from JPY and AUD already mentioned there isn’t much to report on
major FX rates. GBP inched a little stronger against the dollar.
EUR/USD is little changed, as is USD/CAD ahead of the Bank of Canada
decision due today (previews above).
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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