The EURUSD bottomed this week on Monday after falling below the 61.8% of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high at 1.0200. That break could not be sustained. The seller had their shot. They missed.
The subsequent move higher saw the pair peak near the 38.2% of the move down from the December high to the January low. That level came in at 1.03494. The high reached 1.0353 and failed. Like the break at the low, the buyers had their shot. They missed.
The last two days had seen the pair move up and down in volatile trading. However, in the run to the upside side, sellers leaned against the low of a swing area between 1.0332 to 1.0343. Sellers have pushed the price to the converging 100 and 200 hour MAs near 1.0284.
What now? What about next week?
THe 100 and 200 hour MAs will be the short term barometer for traders. Moving below and away is more bearish. The lows from the week at 1.0259. 1.02378, 1.0222, 1.0200 (61.8% on the daily chart) and 1.0176 (the low for the week) are the targets lower.
Conversely, if the price moves above the MA, the swing area at 1.0332 to 1.0343 followed closely by the 38.2% of the range since December high at 1.0349 all need to be broken to prove the buyers are serious about the upside. Absent that, and the price may have corrected higher, but the buyers are not winning. The sellers are still in play or in full control.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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