The EUR/USD moved higher on Thursday after buyers leaned against the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs), supported by weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims, which triggered USD selling. This upward move comes ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, a key event that could either confirm or challenge the narrative of a weakening labor market.
Non-farm payrolls are expected to show a gain of 200K, with the unemployment rate projected to tick up to 4.2%. Last month’s report disappointed with a gain of just 12K. Given the importance of this data for price action, key levels will determine whether buyers retain control or if the short- to medium-term bias shifts back to the downside.
Key Levels to Watch:
Upside:
- 1.0592–1.06097: A ceiling formed since November 11. A break above this range would signal further bullish momentum.
- 1.0634: The 50% midpoint of November’s trading range, a critical resistance level beyond the ceiling.
- 1.0661: The 200-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart. The last time EUR/USD traded above this level was on October 1.
Downside:
- 1.05628: The 38.2% retracement of November’s range. Failure to hold above this level could signal bearish pressure.
- 1.05296–1.0517: A cluster of moving averages, including:
- The 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart
- The 200-hour MA
- The 100-hour MA
Earlier this week, the 100-hour MA acted as resistance on four separate occasions before the price moved above it on Wednesday and Thursday. Notably, ad well, is beforeThursday’s rally the price of the EURUSD was supported by this moving average. If the price breaks below this cluster, it would likely increase the bearish bias and have traders targeting the 1.0448 to 1.0461 area.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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