Fundamental
Overview
The USD yesterday has been
supported in the European session as we got some risk-off flows across the board.
The risk sentiment improved in the American session following the miss in the US
Job Openings data where the data showed that the labour market continues to
come into better balance while the quit and hire rates remained stable.
The EUR, on the other hand,
has been gaining ground against the USD mainly because of the Dollar weakness amid
the general risk-on sentiment regime. Moreover, the recent data from the
Eurozone has been generally good with a pickup in the PMIs, high wage growth and
strong labour market.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that the price action in the EURUSD pair has been mostly rangebound between
the 1.08 support
and the 1.09 resistance as the risk sentiment has been mixed. The price probed
higher on Tuesday after the soft US ISM Manufacturing PMI, but eventually
erased the gains and fell back below the 1.09 handle.
The buyers will want to see
another breakout to gain more conviction and pile in more aggressively for a
rally into the 1.10 handle. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely keep on
leaning on the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop back
into the 1.08 support.
EURUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor trendline
defining the current bullish momentum from the 1.08 support. This is where we
can expect the buyers to pile in with a defined risk below the trendline to
position for a break above the 1.09 resistance and target the 1.10 handle.
The
sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling below the
trendline to gain even more conviction and increase the bearish bets into the
1.08 support.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a good support zone around the 1.0860 level where we can find
the confluence
of the trendline and the 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level. This is the level the sellers will want to see the price
breaking to increase the bearish bets into the 1.08 support. The red lines
define the average
daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we get the US ADP and the US ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow, we have the
ECB Policy Decision where the central bank is expected to deliver its first
rate cut, and later in the day we get the US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday,
we conclude the week with the US NFP report.
See the video below
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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