Fundamental
Overview
The USD last week finished
slightly positive but overall, it was a pretty flat week. We got some great US PMIs on Friday which showed growth without
inflationary pressures. In fact, despite the strong PMIs the market pricing for
interest rates remained unchanged. That should be positive for risk sentiment
for the time being.
The EUR, on the other hand,
got hit on Friday following the disappointing Eurozone
PMIs, although the losses were erased this morning. The risk sentiment has
been gradually improving, so we might see the greenback coming back under
pressure if this were to persist.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD has been kind of rangebound around the 1.07 handle as the
sellers have been struggling to get the bearish momentum going further. The
1.0727 remains a key level with the price trading below it being more bearish
and above it more bullish.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong resistance
zone around the 1.0727 level where we can also find the confluence of the trendline.
This is where we can expect
the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for
a drop into the 1.06 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking higher to pile in with more conviction and start targeting
the 1.08 handle.
EURUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have the upper limit of the average daily range for today standing right around the
resistance. Therefore, it’s unlikely that we will see a breakout to the upside today
but watch out for the next days as we get some important US data tomorrow and
on Thursday.
Upcoming
Catalysts
This week is a bit light on the data front although we will still get to see some
important releases. We begin tomorrow with the US Consumer Confidence where the
market will be focused on the labour market details. On Thursday, we get the
latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the
US PCE.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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