The EUR/USD is following a well-defined technical script after the ECB’s 25-basis-point rate cut. The pair initially dropped to a low of 1.0463, just above the upper boundary of a key swing area between 1.0448 and 1.0461. Buyers stepped in at this risk-defining level, triggering a rebound.
The subsequent upside move took the price toward the 100-bar moving average (MA) on the 4-hour chart, located at 1.0518. Just above that, the 200-hour MA at 1.0528 provided another resistance zone. The high reached 1.05202, stalling below these critical MAs.
Technical Overview:
- Resistance Cluster: The 100-bar MA on the 4-hour at (1.05218) and 200-hour MA (1.0528) have capped gains for the past two days, with sellers leaning on these levels.
- Support Zone: 1.0448–1.0461 – A revisit to this area could attract buyers again if the price remains below the moving averages.
Scenarios:
- Bullish Case: A break above the 200-hour MA at 1.0528 would open the door to further gains, targeting the next swing resistance between 1.0592 and 1.06097.
- Bearish Case: Staying below the moving averages keeps sellers in control, potentially leading to a retest of the 1.0448–1.0461 support zone.
The price action is adhering closely to key technical levels, with the battle between buyers and sellers centered around these pivotal areas.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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