When technical levels overlap and find sellers (or buyers) leaning against that level, it should raise an antenna for traders as a “key risk focused level”. That is, if the price cannot get back above that level, the sellers (or buyers) are in control.
Moreover, if multi-time frames (i.e. daily, or 4-hour , hourly, etc) have technical levels that converge at the same level, it makes that level even more important.
In the EURJPY, the 100-day MA and a swing area converged near 162.93 on Friday. When the high corrective price on Friday reached that level, sellers leaned against the level, and pushed the price lower (see the chart below).
Going further, looking at the hourly chart below, the 100 hour MA was also near the 100-day MA on the run higher on Friday. So not only did the 100-day MA and swing level hold resistance, but the 100 hour MA also stalled the rally (see blue circle 5 on the chart below). That added to the sellers on Friday.
The 100 hour MA (blue line on the char below) is now lower and in trading today, the rally in the Asian session stalled ahead of that MA level (see blue circle 6 on the chart below).
So now, the 100 hour MA at 167.05 is a closer risk/bias defining level. Move above it, and the short-term bias tilts modestly to the upside with work to do. The “work to do” (or work in process) would be to get above the 100-day MA and the swing level near 167.93.
By building the technical case on multiply charts, trades can find the pattern that shows the roadmap for sellers (or buyers depending on which way the market is going). For the EURJPY, the 100 hour MA is important. The 100 day MA and swing level is also important. As a result, they are part of the roadmap for your trading.
As long as the price remains below those levels, the way forward is lower. If the 100 hour MA is broken, the price bias has turned around and is hinting to go higher. If the 100 day MA/swing level is then broken, the roadmap now says, “go higher” .
Follow the technical roadmap. It shows the way.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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