A day after the stronger than expected US jobs report, the USD is modestly higher with the largest gains vs the EUR (+0.52%) and the GBP (+0.81%). THe dollar has small gains vs the CHF, CAD, AUD and NZD and is lower vs the JPY (-0.22%) to start the week.
EURUSD: THe EURUSD is stretching to the lowest level since November 2022 and has fallen below the 61.8% of the move up from the 2022 low to the 2023 high. That level also came in at the natural resistance level of 1.0200. The low has reached 1.0177. The corrective high off of the low traded up to 1.02067, but has rotated back below the 1.0200 level and currently trades at 1.0192. Traders may look to use that 1.0200 level as a short term barometer. Moving above does not signal a turn in the sentiment – there might be more upside bias on a break above 1.0222 on the failure – but staying below 1.0200 would be decidedly negative.
USDJPY: The USDJPY has moved lower today, bucking the trend in the USD’s modest move higher vs the other major currenciies. The JPY crosses are also moving lower on ‘Risk off” flows. The price remains near recent highs going back to July, but after running to a new year high on Friday off the stronger US jobs report, the buyers turned to sellers.
Looking at the hourly chart below, the price fell below the 200-hour MA at 157.64 on Friday but rebounded back above into the close. Today, the price once again fell below that key 200 hour MA and has remained below. On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 157.184 is also in play with a move – and staying below – more bearish. A move toward 155.94 to 156.22 is not out of the question on more selling going forward (low of the Red Box).
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD continued its run to the downside today after breaking and closing below the 38.2% of the move up from the 2022 low at 1.22524. Today the price from the start has been steadily moving lower.
Looking at the daily chart, the price fell below the low of a swing area between 1.21877 and 1.22524. There is not a lot of support until another swing area going back to September between 1.20387 and 1.20686. Moving below that area going forward would have traders looking toward the 50% of the move up from the 2022 low at 1.18895. That would take the price to the lowest levels since March 2023.
Looking at the US stock market, the major indices continue their fall. The broader indices are down 3-straight days and on pace for a 4th day down today. The futures are implying:
- Dow -56 points. On Friday, the index tumbled -696 points
- S&P -34.54 points. On Friday, the index tumbled -91.21 points
- Nasdaq -174 points. On Friday, the index fell 317.25 points
Looking at the US debt market yields are now trading lower after being mixed earlier today:
- 2 year 4.391% -0.4 basis points
- 5 year 4.582%, -0.9 basis points
- 10 year 4.761%, -1.3 basiis points
- 30 year 4.941%, -2.2 basis points
The only economic releases today will be:
- Employment trends for December. Last month it came in at 109.55
- Federal Budget for December -$75.00B vs -$367.00B last month. A year ago the Dec deficit was -129B
Crude oil is higher by $1.48 at $78.03. Gold is down -$18 or 0.65% at $2671.50.
Bitcoin is down -$3900 at $90,587. The low today reached $90,204.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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