Fundamental
Overview
Crude oil remains confined
in a range between the 72.00 resistance and the 67.00 support as the market
continues to weigh the future scenarios.
On one hand, we have the
Trump’s victory which might be seen as bearish in the short term for fear of
the tariffs and a slowdown in global growth as other countries could retaliate,
and an increase in supply.
On the other hand, the red
sweep should see Trump focusing more on tax cuts and domestic issues first which
should eventually lift global growth expectations. If we had a divided
Congress, then his first priority could have been indeed a trade war.
Moreover, we have also central
banks easing their monetary policies and that generally leads the manufacturing
cycle, which is likely to be supportive for the crude oil market.
More recently, we got the
news that OPEC+
could further extend its voluntary output cuts at the December meeting and another
better US
Manufacturing PMI which contributed to the bullish sentiment in the past
few days.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is approaching the top of the range between the resistance around the 72.00 handle and the
support around the 67.00 handle. The focus will now be on the potential
breakout.
The buyers will want to see
the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 78.00 handle
next, while the sellers will likely step in around the resistance to position
for a drop back into the 67.00 support.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price recently broke above the middle of the range around the
69.50 level which acted as kind of a barometer for the short term sentiment.
The buyers piled in on a break higher to extend the rally into the top of the
range. The sellers will need to see the price breaking below it to increase the
bearish bets into the bottom of the range.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline
now defining the current bullish momentum. If we were to get a pullback, the
buyers will likely lean on it to position for the breakout of the range. The
sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break below the trendline and the
69.50 zone to target a drop into the 67.00 support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we have the US Consumer Confidence report and the FOMC Meeting Minutes.
On Wednesday, we get the US PCE report and the latest US Jobless Claims
figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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