Fundamental
Overview
Last week, crude oil has
been on a seesaw due to supply side factors as we got the news that Libya was going to close down all
oil fields and halt
production and exports, and then that Iraq was going to cut production.
On Friday, oil weakened
again on the news
that OPEC+ was going to proceed with the planned production hike in October. In
the bigger picture, the market has been mostly rangebound for two years as
central banks tightening weighed on growth.
Right now, it seems like
the Fed is going to cut rates into a resilient economy which could spur
economic activity. If they really manage to pull out a soft landing, it should
support the crude oil market. On the other hand, if the data increases the
expectations for a hard landing, we should see new lows ahead.
Watch out for the US ISM
Manufacturing PMI release today as that will likely set the trend into NFP across
all markets.
Crude Oil
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that crude oil is now near the key 72.50 support.
This is where we can expect the buyers to step back in with a defined risk
below the support to position for a rally into the 80 handle. The sellers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 67.50 level next.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a strong trendline defining the bearish bias. If we
bounce around these levels and get there, we can expect the sellers to lean on
it with a defined risk above it to position for a break below the 72.50
support. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking
higher to increase the bullish bets into the 80 handle.
Crude Oil Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a nice resistance zone around the 74 handle. If we get a
bounce around the support, the buyers will want to see the price breaking above
the resistance to increase the bullish bets into the trendline. The sellers, on
the other hand, will likely lean on it to position for a break below the
support. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have the US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Tomorrow, we have the US Job
Openings. On Thursday, we get the US Jobless Claims figures and the ISM
Services PMI. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with the US NFP
report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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