The Bank of Canada rate decision will take place at 9:45 AM ET. The expectations are for a 50 basis point cut.
Adam summarized the decision here. Key takeaways:
- Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 50 bps on Wednesday, marking the first significant cut in the current cycle.
- OIS market predicts a 90% chance of a 50 bps cut, with a small chance of 25 bps.
- Market expects another 25 bps cut by year-end, with rates declining by 100 bps to 2.50% in 2025.
- Canadian consumer trends are worsening, with CPI at 1.5% y/y, and housing markets, especially in Ontario and British Columbia, struggling.
- There’s potential for rates to drop to 1% if a hard landing scenario occurs.
- Employment remains strong, but public sector layoffs and government changes could impact the economy.
- A dovish 50 bps cut is likely, which may slightly boost USD/CAD, but broader market deterioration would be needed for significant movement.
The press conference will begin at 10:30 AM ET
Technically, the price of the USDCAD is pressing against topside swing area resistance between 1.3833 and 1.38475. A break above that level and staying above that level will start to target other swing levels going back to and July and early August at 1.3864, 1.3888, and then the high price from August up at 1.39458.
With a price moving sharply over the last two and half weeks, there is some risk of sell the fact. If the price starts to trade more comfortably below 1.3833, and then breaks below 1.3813 (the low from yesterday should trade). We could see for the downside probing with 1.3790 and then the broken 61.8% retracement 1.37449 as corrective downside targets. Lastly, the low price stalled right at the broken 61.8% retracement level at 1.37449 increasing that levels importance going forward.
Risk is increased through the decision. Buyers are still showing their strength. Can they keep the momentum going through the decision and aftermath, or will there be a self-the-fact reaction.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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