To put things short, the RBA is waiting on one of two things to happen next. That is either the economy weakens further in a more significant manner to prompt them to cut rates. Or that they get their wish and inflation falls, allowing them to also cut rates. For now, the lack of progress on the latter is still making it hard for the RBA to do anything else.
And so, the aussie is caught in between all of that. The narrative remains that the RBA wishes that it could start winning the inflation fight and cut rates. But there’s still an outside chance that inflation is stubborn, and could force their hand to even hike rates further if need be. So, traders have to balance those risks at the moment.
For today, the policy decision doesn’t mean much. It is just a repeat of the May stance, with the statement language clearly reflecting that. It will come down to the data over the next few months, to see what the RBA may be forced to do next.
In the case of AUD/USD, the pair is still facing modest resistance near 0.6700 for now. As for recent downside, there is some semblance of support near 0.6575-90. But the 100-day moving average (red line) at 0.6563 and the 200-day moving average (blue line) at 0.6545 remain the more important technical levels to be mindful of.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
Source link
