Fundamental
Overview
The US CPI report yesterday came in line with
expectations and sealed the 25 bps cut next week with the probabilities
standing around 97%. Overall, the market’s pricing remained largely unchanged
around three rate cuts by the end of 2025.
This contributed to some US
Dollar weakness although we are still consolidating around the highs. The
market will likely need stronger evidence of inflation re-accelerating to price
out the remaining rate cuts. For now, we reached the peak in the repricing.
On the AUD side, the RBA
kept the cash rate unchanged as expected this week but toned down further its
language as we slowly move towards the first rate cut in 2025. The Australian labour
market report today came out much better than expected which pushed out the
probabilities for the first cut to April instead of February.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD bounced around the key support
around the 0.6360 level as the buyers stepped in to position for a rally back
into the highs. The sellers will need to see the price breaking lower to
increase the bearish bets into the 0.6267 level next.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better
risk to reward setup around the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking above the trendline and the 0.6471 swing level
to shift the bias to bullish and increase the bets into new highs.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum
on this timeframe. The buyers will likely lean on it to keep pushing higher,
while the sellers will look for a break lower to target new lows. The red lines
define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today, we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures and the US PPI data.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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