Fundamental
Overview
The USD continues to be
backed by good economic data as we have also seen recently from the US PMIs last Friday and the US Consumer Confidence report yesterday. Although such
data keeps the interest rates expectations stable around two cuts by the end of
the year, it also supports the risk sentiment amid a pickup in growth. This
could be a headwind for the greenback.
The AUD, on the other hand,
has been supported recently by a better risk sentiment and the slightly more hawkish
RBA policy decision. Today, the Aussie got a boost
from another hot
monthly CPI report which raised the chances of a rate
hike.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can
see that AUDUSD is now getting close to the key resistance zone around the 0.6713 level. All
else being equal, the fundamentals are in place for an upside breakout. That’s
what the buyers will want to see to increase the bullish bets into the 0.6870
level next.
The sellers, on the other
hand, will likely step in around the 0.6713 resistance zone with a defined risk
above it to position for a drop back into the bottom of the range at 0.66.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the rangebound price action between the 0.67 resistance and
the 0.66 support. These will be the key levels that the market will need to
break to start a more sustained trend. For now, we could keep bouncing around until
we get a clear breakout.
AUDUSD Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price pulled back from the upper limit of the average
daily range. We have a good support around the 0.6672 level where we can
also find the confluence
of the 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level.
This is where we can expect
the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the support to position for a continuation
of the rally. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
falling below the support to start targeting a drop back into the 0.66 support.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Tomorrow we get the latest US Jobless Claims figures, while on Friday we
conclude the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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