USD
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting with basically no
change to the statement. The Dot Plot still showed three rate cuts for 2024 and
the economic projections were upgraded with growth and inflation higher and the
unemployment rate lower. - The US CPI beat expectations for the third
consecutive month, while the US PPI came in line with forecasts. - The US NFP beat expectations across the board
although the average hourly earnings came in line with forecasts. - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI beat expectations by a big margin with
the prices component continuing to increase, while the US ISM Services PMI missed with the price index dropping to
the lowest level in 4 years. - The US Retail Sales beat expectations across the board by a
big margin with positive revisions to the prior figures. - The market now expects the first rate cut in
September.
AUD
- The
RBA left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting and
finally dropped the tightening bias. - The
last Monthly CPI report came in line with
expectations although the underlying inflation measure increased from the prior
month. - The
latest labour market report missed expectations. - The
wage price index surprised to the upside as wage
growth in Australia remains strong. - The
latest Australian PMIs showed the Manufacturing PMI almost
jumping back into expansion while the Services PMI ticked slightly lower
remaining in expansion. - The
market expects the first rate cut in February 2025.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD fell
below the 0.64 handle but eventually bounced back to retest the previous lows
where we can also find the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. This is
where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the
Fibonacci level to position for a drop into the 0.6272 level. The buyers, on
the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the
bullish bets into the 0.65 resistance zone
where we have also the red 21 moving average for
confluence.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the latest leg
lower diverged with the
MACD, which
is generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, it led to a pullback into the resistance around the
0.6475 level. If the price were to break higher, the chances for a reversal
will increase and we could see a quick rally into the 0.6520 resistance.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor upward trendline defining the current bullish momentum with the
red 21 moving average acting as dynamic support. The buyers are leaning on this
trendline to
keep bidding up the pair into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
want to see the price breaking lower to pile in and position for a drop into
new lows.
Upcoming Events
Today we get the US Flash PMIs. Tomorrow, we have
the Australian CPI data. On Thursday we will see the latest US Jobless Claims
figures, while on Friday we conclude the week with the US PCE report.
This article was written by FL Contributors at www.forexlive.com.
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