The AUDUSD is lower on the week, but since bottoming on Wednesday, the price has moved up and down. IN the process, the price has seen the price move above and below the 61.8% of the move up from the August low at 0.6575. The price over the last day or so has also moved above and below the falling 100 hour MA (which caught up with the price this week).
When the price action trades above and below technical levels, it says to me that the market is unsure of the next move.
Having said that, in the hourly chart below, the price has been holding support at the 100 hour MA over the last few hours. Are buyers making a play?
If so, they would need to get and stay above the falling 200 hour MA at 0.66046. If that can happen trades will look toward the 200 day MA and a swing area between 0.66189 and 0.66279. Get above that level and other targets including the 50% at 0.6645 and the 100 bar moving average on the 4-hour chart at 0.66535 would be targeted.
Conversely, a break below the 100 hour moving average and then the low for the weekend 0.65357 would have traders looking down toward a swing area going back to the end of July and early August between 0.6471 and 0.64864.
AUDUSD Technical Analysis
Current Market Status:
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AUDUSD lower on the week, but rebounding since Wednesday.
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Price action indicates market uncertainty.
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
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100-hour Moving Average (MA): (falling)
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Weekend low: 0.65357
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Swing area (July-August): 0.6471-0.64864
Resistance Levels:
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61.8% retracement: 0.6575
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200-hour MA: 0.66046
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200-day MA at 0.66279:
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Swing area: 0.66189-0.66279
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50% retracement: 0.6645
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100-bar MA (4-hour): 0.66535
Market Direction:
- Buyers attempting to regain control.
- Break above 200-hour MA (0.66046) needed to confirm bullish momentum.
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Failure to hold above 100-hour MA may lead to bearish continuation.
Possible Scenarios:
Bullish:
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Break above 0.66046.
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Target: 0.66189-0.66279, 0.6645, 0.66535.
Bearish:
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Break below 0.65357.
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Target: 0.6471-0.64864.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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